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Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve?!

19 October 2009 2 Comments

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This topic deserves much more than the tweet I gave it last week. Here is additional information on the “possible” US dollar demise!

The Wall Street Journal writes:  Start with dollar supply, which is entirely a function of America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve. The Fed has been flooding the world with dollars in the name of preventing a U.S. deflation after last year’s panic, and it shows no sign of tightening any time soon.

[Via the New York Times] “Over the last three months, banks put 63 percent of their new cash into euros and yen — not the greenbacks — a nearly complete reversal of the dollar’s onetime dominance for reserves, according to Barclays Capital. The dollar’s share of new cash in the central banks was down to 37 percent — compared with two-thirds a decade ago.”

[Shigeki Nozawa writes for Bloomberg] ”The dollar may drop to 50 yen next year and eventually lose its role as the global reserve currency, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.’s chief strategist said, citing trading patterns and a likely double dip in the U.S. economy.

“The U.S. economy will deteriorate into 2011 as the effects of excess consumption and the financial bubble linger,” said Daisuke Uno at Sumitomo Mitsui, a unit of Japan’s third- biggest bank. “The dollar’s fall won’t stop until there’s a change to the global currency system.”

The dollar last week dropped to the lowest in almost a year against the yen as record U.S. government borrowings and interest rates near zero sapped demand for the U.S. currency. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, has fallen 15 percent from its peak this year to as low as 75.211 today, the lowest since August 2008.”

Click here for the rest of the Shigeki Nozawa story.

2 Comments »

  • Durf said:

    Personally I think the take in Barry Eichengreen’s Foreign Affairs piece is more accurate. A collapse of the dollar as spectacular as the one Nozawa writes about would mean global problems so huge–devastating blows to the Chinese and Japanese economies too, for instance–that the relative strengths of currencies wouldn’t be a primary concern for most people.

  • John Bockman said:

    My wife changed a lot of money to dollars when it was ¥100/dollar. She’s worried she’ll lose half of it, but I keep telling her just to hang on to it. It will come up again some day–I hope.

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